CHAFFCENT | MARKET INTELLIGENCE

Potential Investor Newsletter

Event-driven analysis for prospective investors, with strategic asset quality kept distinct from financial attractiveness at the prevailing price.

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The Dangote Petroleum Refinery IPO series follows the public offer, eventual NGX listing, valuation, operating evidence and the shareholder economics that determine whether a strategically important asset is financially attractive.

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Latest editions

Edition 08 · 28 October 2026

The offer has closed: strong reported demand, but price discovery still matters

The issuer confirms closure on 27 October. Reuters reports orders near three times the base offer, but final subscriptions, the potential 30% increase and the SEC-approved allotment remain unconfirmed.

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Edition 07 · 14 October 2026

Stronger cash generation, a longer offer window — allocation discipline holds

Unaudited nine-month results materially strengthen the operating case. The offer now closes on 27 October, but normalised earnings, expansion funding and policy exposure still warrant measured participation.

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Edition 06 · 10 October 2026

Proposed petrol ceiling adds cash-recovery risk as crude constraints persist

A proposed wholesale-cost ceiling introduces a financing question for refiners. Domestic crude constraints remain material; neither development establishes a quantified fall in refinery profitability.

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Edition 05 · 8 October 2026

East African GDR access widens — but liquidity and allocation remain conditional

Kenyan and Ugandan regulatory steps broaden participation in the refinery IPO. The proposed Kenyan GDR tranche clarifies potential distribution, but actual demand, allotment, listing and minority returns remain unproven.

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