The offer is live — now valuation discipline matters most

What changed

The SEC-approved public offer opened on 14 September 2026 at ₦525 per share. The offer comprises 4.10 billion new ordinary shares and is scheduled to close on 13 October 2026.

Because the shares are newly issued, the transaction is a primary capital raise rather than a sell-down by existing shareholders. Gross proceeds are approximately ₦2.15tn before costs.

What the live terms mean

• The offer values the refinery at roughly ₦63tn / about $47.6–49bn on launch-date exchange rates.
• IPO proceeds cover only about 11% of the stated $14.3bn Phase 2 expansion programme, leaving financing structure a central shareholder issue.
• The minimum application is 10 shares, deliberately widening retail accessibility.
• Trading was expected in late November, so IPO investors still face an interval between subscription, allotment and price discovery.

Investment thesis

Strategic asset quality is VERY ATTRACTIVE. Financial attractiveness at ₦525 is ATTRACTIVE, BUT NOT CHEAP. Overall risk remains HIGH.

The refinery’s scale, operating position and Atlantic geography support the long-term case. The counterweights are normalised refining margins, the financing burden of Phase 2, concentrated control, related-party discipline, NGN/sovereign exposure and uncertain post-listing liquidity.

Decision

Current action: HOLD PLANNED ALLOCATION. The preferred approach remains measured starter participation rather than aggressive IPO concentration, with capital preserved for post-listing price discovery and subsequent public financial reporting.